Hello again,
           
For the sole purpose of beating that one very annoying, incessantly chattering fantasy owner that every group of friends has, I will now take a statistical look at how to maximize your chance of winning your fantasy baseball league. With some drafts already completed, I probably should have written this article two weeks ago, but APLE (http://www.themeatylasagna.com/TheFreezer/Sports/APLE09.html ) has taken up much of my time (with grad school a distant second, sorry mom).

First I would like to do a little primer on player projection systems. This should be at the heart of when or if you draft a certain player. Subconsciously you always have an idea of what you expect out of a player when you draft him, but quantifying these thoughts is very important. Fortunately a number of nerdy… I mean mathematically gifted… people have done this already. Nate Silver (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/), Ron Shandler (http://www.baseballhq.com/ ), and Rotowire (http://www.rotowire.com/index.htm ) all have excellent systems that project every player’s stats from the number of at-bats to the number of stolen bases and everything in between. While using any of these systems will put you ahead of the field, I strongly recommend Nate’s. His “PECOTA” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA ) system has outperformed all others on an almost annual basis. I do not try (or have the desire) to create another player projection system. It is a very labor intensive process.

For my ratings I will simply use an already produced system (Nate’s). Without getting into too much statistical jargon, I come about my ratings through a process called normalization. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score ). After normalization the average of every category will be zero. So if a player has a positive number in a given category, then he is above average in that category. The higher the number, the better that player is in that category with respect to the other players. I then add up the normalized score of each player in each of the five hitting categories used most often in fantasy baseball (runs, home runs, rbi, steals, and batting average). I realize that half of the people that started reading this article have now stopped, so let’s quit while we’re ahead on the stat explanations and go to the results.

There is a subscription required to Baseball Prospectus in order to receive Nate’s PECOTA ratings, so I do not think it is right to publish his results on TML. However, I myself created the algorithm above, so below I will list the top ten at every position using my formula with none of Nate’s numbers posted. I have added my random, stream-of-conscientiousness thoughts as well. 

You'll notice that pitchers are not included, this is intentional. Normalizing the five generally used pitching categories gets hairy as there are really three distinct groups of pitchers: starters, middle relievers, and closers. They all have very distinct differences, almost to the point of independence. I am sure there is a way to make it work, but I have not come up with one that I am comfortable with yet.

Catchers - It should be noted that there is very little difference between #8 and #16, so if you miss out on Sandoval or Iannetta, your better off waiting until your last pick and go with a flyer. Wieters rates out much higher than he typically goes in a draft. You can see how much lower catchers are rated relative to other positions, they always go WAY to early.

1st Base - Again, after Teixeira there are about 6-8 1B's that rate out similarly. Pujols is the third highest rated hitter overall. Overall a pretty deep position. Votto looks good this year.

2nd Base - IMO, if you don't get Utley or Kinsler you are better of waiting until late rounds for a 2B. Pedroia will not do what he did last year again, trust me.

3rd Base - David Wright is obviously the cream of the crop here. Despite A-Rod's injury (and apparent gayness via the infamous magazine photographs), he is still the second rated 3B. Jones and Atkins are nice picks also.

Shortstop - This is the home of the top two overall players (Hanley and Reyes). There is a HUGE drop off after Rollins. This is definitely a position that you want to draft early and get one of the top three.

Outfield (Top 30) - Always the deepest position, many outfielders not listed here will more likely be top 100 players. I think Carlos Beltran is one of the more underrated fantasy players of the past few years. Don't think for a second Holliday can do what he used to do in Denver. Ryan Braun is nasty.